2d10 Resolution Probabilities

Exact enumeration of all 100 outcomes of 2d10. Counts are percentages.

An action succeeds when the roll is equal to or below the Target Number. Margin = Target Number - Roll. Every full 5 points of positive Margin grants one Edge. Matching dice grant a Critical Edge on a success and a Complication on a failure.

Raw distribution

Sum	Frequency	Cumulative (roll or less)
2	1%	1%
3	2%	3%
4	3%	6%
5	4%	10%
6	5%	15%
7	6%	21%
8	7%	28%
9	8%	36%
10	9%	45%
11	10%	55%
12	9%	64%
13	8%	72%
14	7%	79%
15	6%	85%
16	5%	90%
17	4%	94%
18	3%	97%
19	2%	99%
20	1%	100%

Outcomes by Target Number

TN	Success	>=1 Edge	>=2 Edges	>=3 Edges	Max Edges	Critical	Complication
2	1%	0%	0%	0%	0	1%	9%
3	3%	0%	0%	0%	0	1%	9%
4	6%	0%	0%	0%	0	2%	8%
5	10%	0%	0%	0%	0	2%	8%
6	15%	0%	0%	0%	0	3%	7%
7	21%	1%	0%	0%	1	3%	7%
8	28%	3%	0%	0%	1	4%	6%
9	36%	6%	0%	0%	1	4%	6%
10	45%	10%	0%	0%	1	5%	5%
11	55%	15%	0%	0%	1	5%	5%
12	64%	21%	1%	0%	2	6%	4%
13	72%	28%	3%	0%	2	6%	4%
14	79%	36%	6%	0%	2	7%	3%
15	85%	45%	10%	0%	2	7%	3%
16	90%	55%	15%	0%	2	8%	2%
17	94%	64%	21%	1%	3	8%	2%
18	97%	72%	28%	3%	3	9%	1%
19	99%	79%	36%	6%	3	9%	1%
20	100%	85%	45%	10%	3	10%	0%

Notes

Only even totals can be matching dice, so roughly half of all results can never produce a Critical Edge or a Complication.
Total matching-dice frequency is a flat 10% at every Target Number. Raising the Target Number converts Complications into Critical Edges; it does not make matches more common.
Edge frequency climbs far faster than success rate. This is the single largest balance lever in the engine and is tracked in the open questions log.